Will iPhone kill the Windows PC ?
The subject may sound a little bizarre – but it certainly is something to think about. Can the introduction of the iPhone – a phone ( + music player) have any effect on the market share of Vista – an OS running on desktops and laptops – my guess is Yes and a negative effect IF apple gets its act right. The announcement that iPhone will allow 3rd party applications is small step in that direction:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2150858,00.asp
Firstly, let me emphasize this posting has got nothing to do with the iPhone (there are millions of articles already) – it’s more about Windows and the Mac Platform.
A quick analysis of the commercial OS/platform current market share - Mac 5-9 % , Windows 88 % – 95% - shows windows as a clear winner. Windows is a big winner among the consumer segment although Mac, in my view , is a more intuitive OS.
One of the Big reasons why the Mac has been a failure (rather not as successful) are the ecosystem concerns and rightly so: “ Will those apps work on My Mac”,” I have to wait for ages before they build a Mac version of that game”.
Let’s think from the application developer’s perspective: the sweet spot is the windows platform – you have already targeted 80% of the market if your app works for the windows platform – why bother about the Mac.
All that can change – and possible is set to change – if iPhone allows 3rd party applications. If things go as expected the iPhone will end up being a huge success. No developer/company developing apps for the mobile world can ignore the iPhone . This would mean they would need to develop apps for OS X, and now that they know the SDK for OS X and you are essentially increasing the army of developers for OS X.Which is why the initial announcement in Jan that iPhone will Not be open for 3rd party apps was shocking. http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2007/05/steve_jobs_ipho.html
There was a small breather when it was announced that web based un-installable apps will be allowed http://www.tuaw.com/2007/01/10/apple-vps-confirm-no-3rd-party-iphone-apps/ . This is a step in the right direction but still not enough.
Apple quotes that its developer community is about 1 million – a great way to triple that will be to open the iPhone and develop a certification program just the way Symbian (the platform used by Nokia) did in 2004 http://www.phonescoop.com/news/item.php?n=864 This is sure to have a ripple effect on the number of apps built for the Mac and the rate at which windows only apps will be tested/tweaked to work on the Mac OS X.
So will the iPhone kill Windows – obviously No – Microsoft is too smart a company to allow that to happen – but it is sure to cause some dents in the market share 3- 4 quarters from now.
Tags: Apple, iPhone, microsoft, product planning, Technology
June 30, 2007 at 8:57 pm
nice post ! I think that you have missed one critical fact here though which in my opinion will infact cause the Iphone to AID windows penetration !!
)cuz there are tons of windows desktop apps out there and the developers will gain more revenue by moving them to a phone. see sites like handango.com for examples.And add to it the ease of integration that WM provides with well 90% of the desktops,the exchange servers,the office apps,the sql servers and you have mobile platform that apple cannt hope to match.Ever!.
how, well…windows mobile which is MS’ competing os ALREADY provides developers the ability to write apps that can run on a WM phone. And with its goal of being a platform that allows easy portability of desktop apps to the phone, WM becomes a platform that will see a ton of apps for it (well it already has 18000 apps for it
how will apple aid wm…well simply because apple brings the coolness factor and more visibility to the market…people will see the iphone cuz of the sudden buzz and then see the competitors and realise that they have a competitor that already provides what apple hopes to provide so why not make the smarter choice and go for the established platform. apple might have been beaten to an idea by ms for once
-nitish
required disclaimer: these are my views and do not represent the views of the company that I work for.
July 2, 2007 at 6:24 am
Given Apple’s history, I doubt they’re going to allow any third party applications… Apple has this history of lock-in philosophies and the thing that i-Phone has with AT&T is very muck in keeping with the tradition… Lock-ins can never let apple be a major threat in consumer markets and especially outside the U.S.
July 4, 2007 at 5:46 pm
I think, what you mentioned is a distinct possibility - not because the mac ecosystem is will grow on account of the apps developed for the iPhone, but because Apple may actually get the convergence funda right and hence actually displace the PC.
July 5, 2007 at 9:47 am
[...] - Windows Killer? Posted July 5, 2007 My friend Arjun recently blogged about something interesting - Can iPhone dent Windows marketshare? Here’s the gist. iPhone is based on OS X and Apple has [...]
July 23, 2007 at 9:37 am
Ah well I am not sure if IPhone can kill or dent the market windows has, but it sure is emerging as a strong contender in a field windows had world dominance… of being the OS with the maximum number of virus and mal/ad ware…
Independent researches have found vulnerabilities on Safari browser shipped along with Iphone, using these a hacker can take complete control of the Iphone… how scary is that… When i say control.. i mean access to phone book, notes, SMS log, audio files… well until now some one who owned an Ipone was called a phone junky… but if this prevails… they may soon have Junky phones….more on this @
But again… for ones Apple can copy MS and start having a patch Tuesday… An impotent patch was downloaded and your iphone had to be restarted while you were on a call about to close a Billion $ deal, we are sorry for the Inconvenience